ESPN ANALYSTS FIND OBVIOUS TRENDS AMONGST KNICKS

ESPN’s top NBA analysts Ric Buecher and John Hollinger combined their skills, tools and observations to find trends within the Knicks. The analysis is tucked away in the Insider which requires a subscription for this “insider information.”  Unfortunately in this case, it seems that their combined effort is no more than common sense.

First they determine that the player “trending up” is Wilson Chandler.  Hollinger expects Wilson’s player efficiency rating to increase slightly but not drastically.   He writes:

Chandler will start at small forward again and has a good chance to build on last season’s numbers since he’s only 22. It’s unlikely his playing time will increase much this season, especially if Danilo Gallinari is healthy, so any uptick in Chandler’s numbers will have to come from either finding more shots or converting more of the ones he takes. Either is possible, but we’re talking about incremental shifts here with a gradual build. He’ll probably lift his percentages a bit and average around 15 points per game, which is solid. Just don’t expect the moon based on a superficial reading of last season’s numbers.

The player thought to be trending downward is Darko Milicic.  He believes that Milicic is little more than good trade bait around playoff time:

What? You thought Darko would be reborn in Gotham? Let’s curb the enthusiasm. The Grizzlies traded Milicic to New York for Quentin Richardson, and Milicic will serve as the backup center and provide one of the few sources of defense in the basket area for New York. He’s a good option to bring off the bench for 20 minutes a night for that reason, but he may get lost in the Knicks’ run-and-gun approach. Additionally, he doesn’t have the skill level to finish pick-and-roll plays, the bread-and-butter of New York’s half-court game.

According to Bucher, Jordan Hill is the “name to know” which is translated to mean that Knicks hopes may rest on his shoulders as much as Danilo Galinari’s.  However, he expects little from the raw forward.

Most rookies have an easier time if they can play a role alongside an established star. The Knicks don’t have any bona-fide stars, but their post players, Lee and Al Harrington, have strengths, meaning they won’t yield easily to the rookie. Hill is not going to outrebound Lee, and Hill showed no signs in the summer league of having a superior inside-outside game to Harrington’s. So what does he do to make his mark?

Chances are, he won’t. He’ll be just another guy in the rotation, much like Gallinari. And that won’t help Walsh that much.

As I see it, these are all safe observations and predictions that tell us little about how the Knicks will fare this year.  The key to the Knicks is how well D’Antoni will be able to institute his offense (and whether they will play any defense).  I was cracking up earlier this morning because last year I spent a little time on the Fix, where Chris Duhon was treated like a God, criticizing Duhon and Walsh because their actions dismantled D’Antoni’s offensive scheme and turned it into a half-court pick and roll offense.  The only way that changes is if the conditioning and mind-set of the bigs handling the ball on in-bounds or rebounds and the guards bringing up the ball change their mind-set and move the ball (not themselves) quickly up the court.

Consequently, D’Antoni will be looking to Danilo Galinari and his guard corp to direct the offense. As, I  will write later, Galinari is being put in an awfully difficult challenge but what you must like about him is that he has a great competitive mentality which is an important part of what makes a great player.  Still, the Knicks are probably asking too much of him, his conditioning and his understanding of the NBA game.  With so much weight on Galinari it is highly likely he will “peeter out” by the all-star break.

Regarding Chandler, we all expect him to play better and hopefully with more anger and aggression.  However, the problem regarding Chandler is that the D’Antoni staff must begin to maximize this kid’s skills.  He has the ability to have a nice inside game, but turning him into a three point shooter will ultimately hurt his game and confidence.  We can expect the local Beats to pound on his image by interpreting his laid back, deferential and youthful approach to the game as having a “low basketball IQ.”  (That term rankles me coming from the Beats who understand the game far less than most of the players and have a paper trail of prognostications and observations to prove it.)

D’Antoni’s handling of Curry and Milicic will decide how quickly he can get the team to play consistent ball with each other.  No one really expects much from Curry who will probably not be in D’Antoni game shape.  That would require D’Antoni to alter his “game” for another season. I am not very familiar with Milicic’s game although I have reviewed a lot of tape.  I haven’t seen him get the opportunity to demonstrate all those skills he supposedly has, so I reserve judgment for the moment.

As mentioned before, the key to the Knicks will be the guard corp and whether someone can step up and displace Duhon from the position of titular point guard.  All eyes are on Toney Douglas as the player who hopefully will trend up and be able to direct D’Antoni’s offense.  He showed an ability to play the up-tempo game during the summer league where almost all the games were horse races from end-to-end.  Otherwise, we may see another season with major in-season trades that can disrupt the teams’ flow.

Although, I sorta kinda follow ESPN’s power ranking, they really don’t tell you much more than how certain analysts think a team should be ranked. Very subjective.  However, they are still decent entertainment.

This year the Knicks start off at number 26 in the power ranking, under the Nets and above the Wolves, Grizzlies, Bucks and Kings.  We’ll see.

DON’T FORGET TO ROCK THE VOTE FOR THE DANCE-SPIRIT TEAM

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NEW YORK KNICKS 2009-2010 SCHEDULE RELEASED

GULLIBLE’S TRAVELS: The Knicks’ 2010 Plan; Do You Believe That?

Knicks Top 10 Plays 2008-2009, Courtesy of NBA.com

It’s almost time folks.   As the debate about the efficacy of the so-called 2010 plan goes into repetitious overdrive, despite the quality of the 2009-10 home team, we are ready for some action.  Any action.  For the moment, we can look back and enjoy some of the best plays of last year’s campaign.

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One Knick personnel move went slightly unnoticed yesterday:  The Athlon NBA preview magazine was released and this year the New York-New Jersey edition features Chris Duhon.  Chris Duhon moved to the status of Knicks model or model Knick. . . . I hope he has a great year. . . .  Fanatics might be interested in an opinion piece on Eddie Curry which appears at the Dime spot.  According to the headline, Eddie Curry will be a mini-beast in 09-10. I hope he has a great year too. . . . Cablevision, after announcing that it would spin off the Knicks and other assets, has just priced an offering of $900 million in notes so that it could repurchase stock from unit CSC Holdings Inc. Earlier Cablevision announced plans to sell $500 Million in notes. Shares rose 0.2% to $24.07 in after-hours trading. The stock is up 42% this year.  Curry, Duhon and Knicks fans may have bad years, but Dolan probably won’t, even in this economy. . . .Speaking of Cablevision which owns Newsday and the New York Knicks, it appears that the Fix’s (Newsday’s Knicks blog) aesthetics are repaired in the comment section, though the Knicks 2010 Plan promotional material in the sports commentary remains the same. . . . The Knicks 2010 Plan is really a basketball executive diet which will go on the market in 2011 even if it fails.  I can hear Donnie Walsh now: “Try K2012 and gain more cap space in your pants.  I lost 3 pounds, $30 million and one job in three off-seasons”. Just Bloggin, kinda, sorta.

Oh I forgot, Follow me on twitter so I can direct your azz back to this site.  Hey, don’t hate the playa, hate the game. LOL. Have a joyous day.

Did Rubio Con A Kahn Or Was Minnie Marburied Again? Part 2 of 3

TRICKY RICKY’S MATH MAGIC  MISCALCULATION

From a business standpoint, Rubio has brought nothing new to the world of sports. Like picky athlete’s before him – Eli Manning, Brian Bosworth, John Elway and Jay Cutler come to mind  (should Rubio be playing football instead? O.K. throw in Steve Francis.) – Rubio had big league, big market dreams shared by his parents and advisors. 

Rubio is an 18 year-old kid who thought the time was right to make a move to the bigger league.  He believed the hype and anticipated that he would go very, very high in the 2009 draft.  He had advised DKV Joventut, which launched his career at 14 with a onerous five-year contract, that he did not want to play for them anymore and that he planned to do a remake of “Coming To America,” Euroleague style.  Thus, after the draft, buyout negotiations began in earnest although Rubio always gave a sense (check his tweets) that he was outside the loop of such discussions and at the mercy of DKV Joventut. 

Now we know the buyout itself was never prohibitive, only challenging because DKV Joventut had intended to let Rubio go once he asked out.  It was just a matter of how they were getting most of their buyout figure in return for his release.

Rubio himself had stated that he would play in the NBA even if the buyout netted him $0 for a couple of years.  Sure he was just talking smack.  But it didn’t matter how disingenuous his bravado was because before the draft he and his advisors  thought he would make (or find) enough money for a buyout.

When Rubio entered the draft before the lottery selection, he thought he would go higher (2-4) than the 5th spot. His camp also indicated that it intended to exercise its leverage to urge certain small-market teams not to apply for Rubio’s services.  Rubio indicated that he did not intend to go to Memphis nor the Wizards who initially held the 5th spot.

Many of the reputable draftniks had suggested Rubio would go 2d instead of Thabeet. There were also rumors that the New York Knicks would maneuver into position to grab Rubio.  One such rumor had Wilson Chandler in a dog-sled and Rubio on top of the Empire State Building auditioning for “High School Musical 12” as Zach Effron’s understudy. It didn’t hurt that when the Wizards traded the 5th spot to Minnesota, Rubio did not embrace Minnie as a future home either.

Rubio was so confident about going in the top four that he initially refused to attend workouts with the other top guards, including his bud Brandon Jennings, who warned the world that Rubio was all-hype and no game, before he took back the honest slight.  Rubio’s refusals and his eventual workout, alone with the Kings, also heightened concern that he was not prepared for the rigors and competition of the NBA (a fact he seems to admit after the fact; some would call that a chump move. Score one for Jennings.).

After the draft, Rubio’s dad made it clear that his son was not going to play in Minnesota anytime soon. “Right now Ricky is likely staying in Europe one or two years,” the father said.  “We have to talk to the people in Minnesota and see what happens” and “we could be in Minnesota or somewhere else.”

Ricky and Team Rubio probably did not anticipate that Kahn and Minnesota would work so hard to get the fifth pick and that he would fall that far.  He also didn’t seem to believe that the Wolves would actually reach an agreement with DKV Joventut to accelerate Rubio’s transition to the NBA.  It was clearly a miscalculation on Team Rubio’s part because money was never the real problem after he bid DKV farewell.

As Chris Sheridan pointed out, even in Minnesota Rubio would be able to afford a mutually agreeable buyout: “The Timberwolves’ offer, which could include only $500,000 in cash under NBA rules, would presumably have revenue streams from Rubio’s endorsement deals and his four-year, $15.2 million NBA rookie-scale contract ($3.27 million salary in 09-10, $3.51 million in ’10-11, with team options for $3.76 million in ’11-12 and $4.76 million in ’12-13).”

Despite the financial limitations, Kahn spent the summer crafting a deal that was acceptable to all parties. Rubio agreed to the arrangement that would make him an NBA baller at 18, but then reneged on his agreement with Minnesota.  In a statement, the corporate board of DKV Joventut said,

Yesterday, after a big effort from the two parties, DKV Joventut and Minnesota Timberwolves reached an agreement which permitted to terminate the contractual relationship between the player and the Club and his integration in the NBA team.
In front of this situation and in contradiction with what he has been saying to us and to Timberwolves´ representatives from time to time, the player has announced the decision that he wants to be transferred to FC Barcelona.
From a very beginning, never at our own initiative, we have been receptive and we have negotiated with maximum respect and clarity with everybody, accepting that the player wants to leave and that we should find the best suitable solution.

Kahn knew his chances of getting Rubio this season were slim, but it was his job to make a serious effort since Rubio indicated he would be interested in joining the Wolves immediately.  In a teleconference after Rubio reneged Kahn revealed his plan and the process:

On the night of the draft, I explained that the decision to draft Ricky was not difficult – that he was 18, the youngest player in the draft, and we were a building team that could wait for him. Nothing has changed. When we received signals from Ricky this summer that he was considering accelerating his path to the NBA and joining us sooner, we threw ourselves into this process willingly and energetically, including meeting with Joventut on four separate occasions.

Kahn clearly felt emotionally burned after putting so much time and effort into bringing Rubio to the states.  Still, Kahn would not throw his asset under the front wheels of the bus. Based on Kahn’s statement alone it is difficult to tell whether he actually thought Rubio was just a kid under pressure, a business Decepticon using the Wolves or just an outright liar:

"On Saturday night, an agreement was reached between Dan Fegan, the agent for Ricky Rubio, Jordi Villacampa, the president of Joventut Badalona, and myself on behalf of the Minnesota Timberwolves to buy out the last two years of Ricky´s contract with Joventut so that he could play in the NBA next season.

While the term sheet was being finalized Monday night, Ricky informed me that, despite considering us his first option the previous weekend – and, admittedly, after some back and forth throughout the summer — he preferred to stay at home to play for FC Barcelona, which earlier this summer had made a buyout offer to Joventut. He also reaffirmed that it was his intention to join us in Minnesota two years from now when he will be 20.

Statements attributed to Rubio don’t help clarify whether his true position is to avoid the Timberwolves and the Minnesota cold at all costs or to really play for Rambis as Jonny Flynn’s and Ramon Session’s back-up in two years.  He seems to talk out of both sides of his mouth, in two languages to two different audiences.

Immediately after his change of heart, Rubio released the following statement:

"The reason leading me to take this next step is to have a period of preparation to better take the challenge of the NBA in better conditions as a player. The Minnesota Timberwolves continue to be my first option and I wish to play with them in the near future."

Later, when speaking to the spanish press, Rubio indicated that he had several reasons for not joining the Wolves, at least one of which contradicted Kahn’s and DKV Joventut’s statements:

"Going to Minnesota would have just complicated my life a lot. It was a risk and I didn’t see it so clearly," Rubio said. "My priority was the NBA and it was impossible for the Minnesota Timberwolves to pay my buyout clause, so I wanted to stay home."

Marca.com reported that Rubio really wanted to stay connected to home at this point and that he wanted to develop as a player and win trophies, which was less likely in Minnesota.  But, the American press quoted him as saying “I won’t lie, My objective has always been the NBA.”

A wise old Latina woman once said, if you must start the sentence off with “’I won’t lie,’ you’re probably hiding something.” For Knicks fans, it is easy to imagine, with the help of those who need camouflage for poor planning (i.e., the Knicks), that Rubio will find a way not to play in Minnesota in two years.  The NBA is clearly not his objective this year, nor is Minnesota.  So wisely, Walsh has immediately placed his marketing chips back on the Rubio table.

While he knows that a lot can happen in two years – like the Knicks could have a settled backcourt, Sessions could get traded to make room for Rubio, or Kahn could trade Rubio’s rights for a 2010 first rounder –  Walsh can make sure the Knicks are in a position to help Rubio help him, if that becomes an option.  For now, Walsh will have two years to monitor the situation and to constantly call his protégé with new trade proposals.

But one must remember that this is not football or futbol.  The business-game is NBA basketball shortly before an anticipated Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) fight. NBA history suggests that Kahn is in a superior position to Rubio and Walsh and that he may have played this situation perfectly. 

  

Next: Kahn’s Move For Rubio – A Classic Gambit

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Knicks’ Depth Chart: Where Do We Go From Here?

PG	Chris Duhon	Toney Douglas
SG	Larry Hughes	Nate Robinson
SF	Wilson Chandler	Danilo  Gallinari	Al Harrington
PF	David Lee	Jared Hill	Darko Milicic
C	Jared Jeffries	Chris Wilcox	Eddie Curry

Above is the New York Knicks’ current depth chart. Unlike much of the speculative press, I will assume that Walsh wants to sign both David Lee and Nate Robinson for the upcoming season. It makes a little sense to sign the homegrown talent to give the product stability until you figure out what your new talent can do. It may also make a little sense to work the year with 13-14 contracts instead of 15 to help insure that the team remains significantly below the cap by the following year.

Nevertheless, the roster still looks like a mess. Unless a point is signed, Toney Douglas may be the pleasant surprise of the year. The other major story lines so far are about players rehabbing physically (Danilo) and emotionally (ECity). We ask can Chandler develop while playing with placeholders such as Hughes and Harrington?

This is not looking too good much better than last season so far. Tomorrow creeps at its petty pace from day to day. 2010 where are you?